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World Cup 2018: The progressive person’s guide, featuring Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain and Egypt

To help with the sometimes difficult decision of who to back, The Independent has come up with a brief sketch of the merits and demerits of the countries whence each team emerged from

Sean O'Grady
Tuesday 26 June 2018 22:03 BST
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2018 Russia World Cup in numbers

An interest, passionate or passing, in football should never be incompatible with a passionate, or for that, matter, passing, commitment to human rights and liberal values.

To help with the sometimes difficult decision of who to back, The Independent has come up with a brief sketch of the merits and demerits of the countries whence each team emerged from.

No judgement is made, necessarily, on individual team members. By historical analogy, say, we wouldn’t necessarily have known about Diego Maradona’s views on the Argentine military junta when he dashed England’s 1986 hopes in the quarter finals with the infamous “hand of god” incident.

Pele might or might not have been an enthusiastic supporter of hard-line dictator President Medici of Brazil, who was torturing opponents and suppressing dissent at the time Pele was dazzling everyone at Mexico ‘70 tournament. Whether the individual members of the victorious Spanish squad who carried the Jules Rimet trophy home in 2010 backed independence for Catalonia; but we’re entitled, in the progressive world cup, to weigh that current political conflict in the balance.

So for Russia 2018, obviously an unsuitable host, we’ll be enthusiastically mixing politics and sport. We’ll be weighing press freedoms, LGBT rights, constitutional clauses on self-determination and national records on asylum in the manner others assess defensive strength, sheer finishing power, team formations and questionable tattoos. Sometimes, it must be conceded, England may not come out on top.

For each game we’ll be offering a putative “progressive values” score, which may well diverge from footballing reality. From that we will be able to nominate a Human Rights World Cup winner, taking into account the run of pay on the field. It is a useful exercise for anyone with a conscience: Would you really want a vicious dictatorship to win the Wold Cup?

Russia vs Saudi Arabia

Thursday 14th June 4pm ITV

To borrow a famous remark of veteran American statesman Henry Kissinger, “it’s a pity they can’t both lose”.

Indeed, this is a hard-fought contest down at the bottom of the human rights league. Arguably, Russia has a slight edge in press freedom, LGBT rights, the status of women in society and some sort of democratic process (if lawed). Then again, Vladimir Putin is taking Russia in a more authoritarian direction, while reforming Mohammed Bin Salman is, so it seems, slowly liberalising Saudi Arabia, albeit taking a few domestic rivals down a peg or two as he does so. MBS, you might say, is a young captain with plenty of potential. On the death penalty it’s a draw.

Of course, Saudi Arabia hasn’t yet annexed any of its neighbour’s territories, but it is engaged in a pitiless war of attrition in Yemen. In Russia’s case there is the more complete and obvious example of the invasion of Crimea, its effective occupation of eastern Ukraine and constant interference through cyber warfare in everything from the US presidential election of 2016 to the Estonian government’s digital infrastructure. So the Saudis comparatively benign foreign policy just shades it.

Saudi Arabia, then, wins this one, but only by the narrowest of margins, and it’s a disappointing debut for the hosts at the group stage.

The match officials would be lucky to leave the pitch alive.

Progressive final score: Russia 0 Saudi Arabia 1 (Actual score: Russia 5 Saudi Arabia 0)

Egypt v Uruguay

Friday 15th June 1pm BBC1

It’s never going to be easy for Egypt to score in a liberal values contest, and, even taking into account the problems of the region and the wider rise of Islamist extremism, it’s a disappointing record. According to Human Rights Watch, filling the role John Motson used to on the BBC: “president Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi’s government continues to preside over the worst human rights crisis in the country for decades. Police systematically used torture, arbitrary arrests, and enforced disappearances to silence political dissent. Thousands of civilians were tried by military courts. By introducing new restrictive NGO legislation, detaining journalists, and persecuting human rights defenders and subjecting them to travel bans, the government is working to eradicate independent civil society in the country. The crackdown on LGBT people has grown increasingly vicious, along with the continued repression of labour activists”.

Phew. That may or may not be worse than things were under President Mubarak, or the Muslim Brotherhood government that eventually followed, but it’s unequivocally a poor line-up against Uruguay.

Indeed Uruguay has excellent potential in the Progressive World Cup. It’s the first country in the world to fully legalise recreational cannabis, for a start, and has a Mandela-like figure leading this relatively stable, prosperous, and peaceable nation. Former left-wing guerrilla Jose Mujica has been the freely-elected president since 2010 and has said he bears the military dictatorship that ran the country (1973-85), and locked him up, no malice.

Things couldn’t have gone better for the South Americans faced with a weak Egypt.

Progressive final score: Egypt 1 Uruguay 6 (Actual score: Egypt 0 Uruguay 1)

Morocco vs Iran

Friday 15th June 4pm ITV

Not the most scintillating football, maybe, and the pair similarly make a depressing pairing on human rights and progressive values.

Morocco is no paradise for human rights, but under King Mohammed VI, monarch since 1999, the country hasn’t fallen into the kind of problems faced in other Maghreb states after the Arab Spring. So there is some modest press freedom, a law has been passed strengthening women’s rights, the Mudawana, and the King even launched an investigation into human rights abuses under his father’s harsh regime. There’s still the death penalty, but apparently rarely used. Arbitrary detention of foreigners is also uncommon. Morocco’s illegal occupation of Western Sahara remains in place.

Iran scores a huge own goal with the inhumane imprisonment of British citizen Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, but the general record on the rule of law and human rights is a poor one, as it has been for some time. Iran remains fundamentally a theocracy where no substantial change can occur without the personal endorsement of the Ayatollahs. Thus the country’s elections, though lively affairs in which women participate too, are at best only a partial manifestation of democracy. Iran has also, even with the best possible spin being put on it, been keen on developing nuclear weapons, has sponsored terrorists, and interfered in its neighbour’s affairs, notably in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

Amnesty International reports about Iran that: “Floggings, amputations and other cruel punishments were carried out. The authorities endorsed pervasive discrimination and violence based on gender, political opinion, religious belief, ethnicity, disability, sexual orientation and gender identity. Hundreds of people were executed, some in public, and thousands remained on death row.”

Just ask yourself where you’d prefer to go holiday.

Progressive final score: Morocco 3 Iran 0 (Actual score: Morocco 0 Iran 1)

Portugal vs Spain

Friday 15th June 7pm BBC1

On the whole, not much to choose between these two advanced economies, members of the European Union, fully signed up to the European Convention on Human Rights and pleasant countries to live in or visit. However both draw on a reluctance to take asylum-seekers under the EU Relocation programme, while the treatment of Roma people in Portugal has been criticised by Amnesty International.

Spain, of course, has a problem over the Catalan question. Whether you’re in favour of Catalan independence or not, the restrictive Spanish constitution and the panicky and authoritarian response by the Rajoy government to the illegal unilateral declaration of independence has blemished Spain’s usually strong record (including the acceptance of migrants rejected by Italy and Malta). The substitution of Mariano Rajoy as prime minister by Pedro Sanchez has come far too late to make up for that. Spain also persists, in some provinces, with bull-fighting and bull running. A referee might regard those as “offside”, being abuses of animal rights rather than human rights, but review, VAR-style, would plainly judge that those practices violate progressive principles.

So a last minute loss of momentum by Spain hands the points to Portugal.

Progressive final score: Portugal 4 Spain 3 (Actual score: Portugal 3 Spain 3)

France v Australia

Saturday 16th June 11am BBC1

Two highly civilised nations, this is a really a contest of who plays the progressive game best – with one glaring weakness in common. In both countries, successive governments have taken a “robust” ie inhumane attitude towards migrants, although only Australia operates a policy, ironically, of “transportation” to Cambodia or Papua New Guinea, and takes lethal risks hen deterring migrant boats.

Though none of these makes Australia or France into progressive hell holes, they are disappointing in nations that pride themselves on their global reputations and which could do so much better.

So a dull sort of win for France, on balance.

Progressive final score: France 2 Australia 1 (Actual score: France 2 Australia 1)

Argentina v Iceland

Saturday 16th June 2pm ITV

Iceland is a typically Nordic model of political and social progressiveness, with an especially impressive record on women’s rights. Against that, though, is a stubborn attachment to the barbaric and environmentally offensive whaling industry, despite much international opposition. British observers might also feel that Iceland has taken too aggressive a line on her fishing rights.

Argentina has made giant strides since the bad old days of military rule and the Falklands invasion. Today Amnesty International have this to say about the country: “Women and girls faced obstacles in accessing legal abortions. Indigenous Peoples continued to be criminalized and discriminated against. Migrants’ rights suffered significant setbacks.”

A spirited come-back by Argentina and unexpected flaws in the Icelandic game make for a respectable draw between the two sides on broad progressive criteria.

Progressive final score: Argentina 2 Iceland 2 (Actual score: Argentina 1 Iceland 1)

Peru v Denmark

Saturday 16th June 5pm BBC1

So secure are progressive values and human rights in Denmark that Human rights Watch and Amnesty International don’t even bother to cover the nation’s affairs. The 15 per cent or so the far-right Danish people; Party poll in elections, some sporadic anti-Islam protests and, more controversially the Mohammed cartoon affair, are about the only stains on the impeccable tolerance of Danish society.

Peru is simply not in the same league here, though it would be able to handle itself against many other World Cup sides. The treatment of indigenous peoples and women are the areas where Peru could do so much better.

An easy win for the Danes.

Progressive final score: Peru 2 Denmark 5 (Actual score: Peru 0 Denmark 1)

Croatia v Nigeria

Saturday 16th June 8pm ITV

Croatia is proof that membership of the EU and acceptable of the European Charter of Human Rights isn’t enough to guarantee a stellar result. You can’t entirely leave aside the residual bitterness from the Balkans wars, and Amnesty International has some stern words: “Discrimination against ethnic and sexual minorities persisted. Refugees and migrants entering irregularly were returned without access to an effective asylum process. Croatia accepted less than a 10th of the refugees and asylum-seekers it had committed to relocate and resettle under EU schemes. Access to abortion remained restricted.”

Still, Nigeria has problems for which it has gained an unenviable international reputation: Corruption and religious and ethnic tensions are the most serious. On the other hand the Nigerian government has to win some sympathy for its fight against Boko Haram, and, after decades of military dictatorships and a civil war since independence in 1960, Nigeria is at least a functioning democracy.

A low scoring game with few thrilling moments.

Progressive final score: Croatia 1 Nigeria 1 (Actual score: Croatia 2 Nigeria 0)

Costa Rica v Serbia

Sunday 17th June 1pm ITV

Tiny and wealthy by regional standards, Costa Rica has the best record of respecting freedom of expression in Latin America, say Reporters Without Borders. A fully functioning democracy with marriage equality and trans rights on the horizon, Costa Rica is a progressive giant.

Serbia, by contrast, is as you might expect: Corruption, widespread access to guns, discrimination against ethnic minorities, harassment of journalists, slow progress on war crimes trials, and the outstanding issues of self-determination for Kosovo. Serbia has undoubtedly made progress since the Milosevic era, for which it deserves credit, and has vast potential - but not enough progress ye to be permitted to join the EU, not to beat Costa Rica in the progressive world cup.

Progressive final score: Costa Rica 6 Serbia 1 (Actual score: Costa Rica 0 Serbia 1)

Germany v Mexico

Sunday 17th June 4pm BBC1

Footballing and human rights excellence converge with the German side, and no nation except Sweden can rival the Germans accommodation of Syrian refugees in recent years. The rise of the far-right AfD party has soured this historic achievement, but Germany will be hard to beat in the progressive World Cup, just as the real thing.

There’s a reason why so many Mexicans want to cross the border into America. Obscene gaps in wealth and grinding poverty blight the lives of many poor Mexicans, often existing in shanty towns in a country with a growing industrial base and ample oil reserves. The drugs cartels, which it may be unfair to expect any government to eradicate, have also destroyed the lives of many. Violence against women and extra-judicial detention are also facet s of the dispiriting human rights scene in Mexico. That said, Mexico actually has people from El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Venezuela seeking asylum there.

Progressive final score: Germany 6 Mexico 1 (Actual score: Germany 0 Mexico 1)

Brazil v Switzerland

Sunday 17th June 7pm ITV

Switzerland is usually associated with financial secrecy and, therefore, tax evasion, tax avoidance and the channelling of money in and out of unsavoury or illegal activities. Recently the Swiss have offered more transparency in response to international pressure, and criticism has moved to Switzerland’s hostile attitude towards migration, including that of refugees, sending some back to Sri Lanka, Turkey and Sudan. Even so, Switzerland is obviously a functioning democracy with a wide choice of media and political parties.

“Chronic human rights problems plague Brazil”, say Human Rights Watch, with the state of the prisons and media freedom being especially poor areas. Economically the enation’s fast emerging economy has stalled, partly because e of corporate and political corruption scandals and political instability. Of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), Brazil has probably been the most disappointing in its overall progress compared to the bright expectations of a few years ago.

Brazil may be a long-term footballing against (aside from the 7-1 defeat to Germany in the 2014 semi-finals), but tis a progressive pygmy. A comfortable win for the Swiss.

Progressive final score: Brazil 1 Switzerland 4 (Actual score: Brazil 1 Switzerland 1)

Sweden v South Korea

Monday 18th June 1pm ITV

A humane approach to the Syrian refugee crisis earns Sweden many human rights “points”, and it has long been a tolerant and progressive nation, with an enviable reputation for freedom and tolerance. Even so, in recent years the far right have been possible for stirring up hatred and perpetrating attacks, and human rights groups have criticised the authorities for failing to adopt effective strategies to prevent racist and xenophobic attacks. They also say that Roma people continue to face discrimination.

South Korea is certainly a human rights paradigm compared to its northern neighbour, where Kim Jong-un still sends political opponents and indeed anyone vaguely critical of the regime to labour camps. So a sense of perspective is needed when judging conditions in the Republic of Korea. The toppling of a last president on corruption charges shows how far the nation has come, as does its G20 economy and relatively vibrant media scene. Discrimination against LGBT people appears to be the biggest national challenge. South Korea, then, can put up a spirited challenge to Sweden.

Progressive final score: Sweden 3 South Korea 2 (Actual score: Sweden 1 South Korea 0)

Belgium v Panama

Monday 18th June 4pm BBC1

Improvements in transgender rights are balanced to the downside by poor prison conditions and the violation of the right to privacy of potential terror suspects as the country tries to deal with the problem of extremism. Belgium itself has difficulties in balancing its French- Dutch- and German- speaking communities through a complex system of federation and language laws. The “capital” of the EU is not without its failures, then, but, notwithstanding, is a free, prosperous and tolerant society.

Panama, it is fair to say, has a special connection with the world of corruption, tax dodging and, indeed, Fifa scandals. Fifa bosses, among others, were implicated in the so-called Panama Papers leak, where documents leaked form a Panamanian law firm raised questions about the handling of the vast sums that were swashing around the world football scene.

Apart from the tax haven business, though, Panama has almost been transformed since the dictator General Noriega was overthrown by the Americans in 1989, a rate of progress that earns Panama some credit.

Progressive final score: Belgium 4 Panama 1 (Actual score: Belgium 3 Panama 0)

Tunisia v England

Monday 18th June 7pm BBC1

The beauty of the progressive World Cup is that it allows some Scottish, Irish and Welsh football fans to support England, even though it isn’t strictly a country, if only because England has a superior human rights record to most other teams. Imperial oppressor, small-minded, careless about civil liberties and with a government indifferent to social injustice, the English still have a historic right to claim that many of the legal and social freedoms we take for granted today have their origins in Magna Carta (1215) and the Bill of Rights (1689) – the human rights equivalent of going on about the English winning the 1966 tournament.

Tunisia would never claim to have invented human rights, or football, but the nation has tried to deal with the aftermath of the failed Arab Spring and a resurgence of Islamist terror has best it can, with some success. For a poorer country targeted by terrorists, it has a surprisingly strong story, with suppression of LGBT rights and some police brutality the major failings.

Given everything, the Tunisians give the English a suppressing run for their money on liberty and rights.

Progressive final score: Tunisia 2 England 4 (Actual score: Tunisia 1 England 2)

Colombia v Japan

Tuesday 16th June 1pm BBC1

The disparity could hardly be greater between Colombia and japan. Japan enjoys an astonishingly low crime rate and, the activities of the Yakuza and some corrupt business people and politicians apart, is mostly orderly and honest sort of place, free en of the level of human rights abuses that turn up in other advanced economies.

Still japan is not blemish free. Discrimination angst the ethnic Korean minority persists, more progress could be made on LGBT rights, and the death penalty remains in place, though infrequently carried out – five in the past two years, and usually for serial killers.

Colombia is something of a contrast. Drug barons such as Pablo Escobar and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s (Farc), a terrorist group, have been responsible for atrocities over the years. The authorities, meanwhile, have, in the past resorted to a campaign of murder, torture and rape to try and maintain “order”. In ding to they were abetted by Colombia’s business and political elite.

A peace agreement with the Farc in 2016 stopped much of the violence, but Colombia remains the world’s largest producer of cocaine, and with it comes much violence and intimidation. Amnesty International states: “The armed conflict persisted in 2017 and in some parts of the country it seemed to have intensified. Concerns remained about impunity for crimes committed during the armed conflict. Security forces used excessive force, sometimes causing civilian deaths. Violence against women, particularly sexual violence, persisted.”

Newly elected president Duque wants to recast the agreement with Farc.

Despite all the efforts at rebuilding Colombian society, progressive values remain under severe threat.

Progressive final score: Colombia 1 Japan 4 (Actual score: Colombia 1 Japan 2)

Poland v Senegal

Tuesday 16th June 4pm ITV

It hardly seems fair to pit a poor developing country against a relatively prosperous member of the EU, but the match between Senegal and Poland for progressive values is a bit more even than might be at first assumed.

Senegal is certainly no exemplar of the democratic principle, but things could be worse. According to Amnesty International, “the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of expression were restricted. Conditions of detention remained harsh. Children were forced into begging on the street. Impunity for human rights violations was not addressed.” It could be a lot worse.

Poland, however, could be a lot better. The Government there has progressively tightened its grip on the courts, the media and NGOs. The EU Commission has taken the highly unusual step of starting proceedings against Poland for failing to protect human rights and the rule of law, and the authorities continue to defy the EU over taking their share of refugees.

Human Rights Watch have found that: “Asylum seekers, the majority from the Russian republic of Chechnya and Central Asia, who arrived at the Polish-Belarus border crossing were routinely denied the right to access the Polish asylum procedure, and summarily returned to Belarus. Polish authorities on five occasions in 2017 ignored binding European Court of Human Rights interim orders to halt the removal of asylum seekers to Belarus.

In June, the Polish parliament adopted a law restricting access to emergency contraception, even in cases of rape.”

In the circumstances, then:

Progressive final score: Poland 1 Senegal 1 (Actual score: Poland 1 Senegal 2)

Russia v Egypt

Tuesday 16th June 7pm BBC1

Though Egypt is hardly in the same league as Russia’s last opponents, Saudi Arabia, it has more than a fair share of condemnation from human rights groups world-wide.

Even taking into account the problems of the region and the wider rise of Islamist extremism, it’s a disappointing record. According to Human Rights Watch, filling the role John Motson used to on the BBC: “President Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi’s government continues to preside over the worst human rights crisis in the country for decades. Police systematically used torture, arbitrary arrests, and enforced disappearances to silence political dissent. Thousands of civilians were tried by military courts. By introducing new restrictive NGO legislation, detaining journalists, and persecuting human rights defenders and subjecting them to travel bans, the government is working to eradicate independent civil society in the country. The crackdown on LGBT people has grown increasingly vicious, along with the continued repression of labour activists”.

Still, bad as all of that is, Egypt, with few exceptions seems to have more peaceful attitude towards most of its neighbours, with little of Russia’s impulse to invade and annex territory. Russia, moreover, has a long and dishonourable record for human rights abuses, for a national that regards itself as a civilised power.

It is difficult for a “neutral” audience in Britain to forget about the attempted murder of the Skripals in Salisbury, nor the many other examples of Russian provocation and aggression towards its own people and those abroad.

Russia has a slight edge over Egypt in press freedom, LGBT rights, the status of women in society and some sort of democratic process (if lawed). Then again, Vladimir Putin is taking Russia in a more authoritarian direction

Like Russia’s last opponents Saudi Arabia hasn’t yet annexed any of its neighbour’s territories as with the obvious example of the invasion of Crimea and its effective occupation of eastern Ukraine. Interference in western democratic election loses the Russians more points.

Progressive final score: Russia 0 Egypt 1 (Actual score: Russia 3 Egypt 1)

Portugal v Morocco

Wednesday 20th June 1pm BBC1

On the pitch and off it, that is on human rights grounds, this is an easy fixture for the Portuguese. A liberal west European society that has enjoyed democracy since the fall of the last fascists in 1974, Portugal has a relatively clean sheet. Only a reluctance to take asylum seekers and discrimination angst Roma people raise a question mark over Portugal.

Morocco is better than many of its regional peers, such as Libya. So there is some modest press freedom, a law has been passed strengthening women’s rights, the Mudawana, and the King even launched an investigation into human rights abuses under his father’s harsh regime. There’s still the death penalty, but apparently rarely used. Arbitrary detention of foreigners is also uncommon. Morocco’s illegal occupation of Western Sahara remains in place.

Morocco can’t really do much against such a powerful Portuguese showing.

Progressive final score: Portugal 4 Morocco 2 (Actual score: Portugal 1 Morocco 0)

Uruguay v Saudi Arabia

Wednesday 20th June 4pm BBC1

Saudi Arabia doesn’t deserve to win this one. Despite the slow modernisation of the Kingdom under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, there’s just too much weakness there for the Saudi’s to launch much of a defence against the Uruguayans, one of the most progressive societies in the Americas.

Uruguay is, for example, the first country in the world to fully legalise recreational cannabis, for a start, and has a Mandela-like figure leading this relatively stable, prosperous, and peaceable nation. Former left-wing guerrilla Jose Mujica has been the freely-elected president since 2010 and has said he bears the military dictatorship that ran the country (1973-85), and locked him up, no malice.

The Saudis are lucky to get away even with this score line.

Progressive final score: Uruguay 6 Saudi Arabia 0 (Actual score: Uruguay 1 Saudi Arabia 0)

Iran v Spain

Wednesday 20th June 7pm ITV

Iran, theocratic since the Ayatollah got rid of the Shah back in 1978, hasn’t much of a look-in against Spain. True Spain is compromised by the Catalan question, and an overly rigid approach by the Madrid government to Barcelona’s calculated provocations, but it is still one of the more civilised and free communities in Europe, and there has been little violence involved in Spain’s recent struggles with national identity and secessionism.

Iran, by contrast, routinely abuses human rights, still harbours an ambition to acquire nuclear weapons, foments civil wars in its neighbours and generally causes trouble in the region, as well as executing large numbers of its citizens. .

Spain, then, the winners, without a question.

Progressive final score: Iran 1 Spain 4 (Actual score: Iran 0 Spain 1)

Belgium v Tunisia

Saturday 23rd June 1pm BBC1

Quite apart from their attempts to turn a football match into a wrestling tournament with their attempts to pull harry Kane to the ground at any given opportunity (until they forgot to, right at the end), Tunisia has a highly encouraging ethical record. Taking into account tis neighbourhood, the repercussion of the Arab spring and a concerted attempt by so-called Islamic state to destroy the economy, Tunisia is better at human rights than football, in truth. The NGOs cite suppression of LGBT rights and some police brutality the major failings.

Belgium famously has some world class players in its team, though, like the nation itself, divided as it is between its French-speaking Walloons and Flemish communities, it somehow fails to cohere.

According to the experts, Belgium’s useful scoring on improvements in transgender rights are balanced to the downside by poor prison conditions and the violation of the right to privacy of potential terror suspects as the country tries to deal with the problem of extremism.

So a bit of an upset in the progressive game in this Group match.

Progressive final score: Belgium 2 Tunisia 2 (Actual score: Belgium 5 Iran 2)

South Korea v Mexico

Saturday 23rd June 4pm ITV

An interesting contest here between two fast-emerging economies vitally dependent on world trade and with huge improvements in their democratic set-ups and living standards in the past few decades.

Of the two, it’s the Koreans who have more of the possession of progressive values. A conservative society, and a dictatorship until the 1980s, South Korea is almost a model democracy, and one that has shown admirable restraint in dealing with crowd trouble form its hooligan neighbour North Korea.

The toppling of the last South Korean president on corruption charges shows how far the nation has come, as does its relatively vibrant media scene. Discrimination against LGBT people appears to be the biggest national challenge.

Mexico simply trails the South Koreans for liberal quality off the pitch. Obscene gaps in wealth and grinding poverty blight the lives of many poor Mexicans, often existing in shanty towns in a country with a growing industrial base and ample oil reserves. The drugs cartels, which it may be unfair to expect any government to eradicate, have also destroyed the lives of many. Violence against women and extra-judicial detention are also facets of the dispiriting human rights scene in Mexico.

An easy win for the boys from Seoul

Progressive final score: South Korea 4 Mexico 1 (Actual score: South Korea 1 Mexico 2)

Germany v Sweden

Saturday 23rd June 7pm ITV

A fascinating fixture this one, in every way, pitting the two European countries most welcoming to Syrian refugees meeting.

That’s enough to ensure both sides have plenty of scoring power, with few defensive flaws - Sweden and Germany have both seen the rise of far right parties.

In the end, not too much to separate these quality squads

Progressive final score: Germany 3 Sweden 3 (Actual score: Germany 2 Sweden 1)

England v Panama

Sunday 24th June 1pm BBC1

What better way to spend a sunny afternoon than contemplating Panama’s record on human rights? Panama, it is fair to say, has a special connection with the world of corruption, tax dodging and, indeed, Fifa scandals. Fifa bosses, among others, were implicated in the so-called Panama Papers leak, where documents leaked form a Panamanian law firm raised questions about the handling of the vast sums that were swashing around the world football scene.

Apart from the tax haven business, though, Panama has almost been transformed since the dictator General Noriega was overthrown by the Americans in 1989, a rate of progress that earns Panama some credit.

By contrast even the most jaundiced view of the “home” side couldn’t put England in the same bracket as Panama.

Progressive final score: England 4 Panama 1 (Actual score: England 6 Panama 1)

Japan v Senegal

Sunday 24th June 4pm BBC1

Bad luck, Senegal. Japan enjoys an astonishingly low crime rate and, the activities of the Yakuza and some corrupt business people and politicians apart, is one of the mostly orderly places on earth, and democratic with it. Discrimination against the ethnic Korean minority persists, and more progress could be made on LGBT rights. Another fault would be the death penalty, which remains in place, though infrequently used.

Senegal can’t really match Japan human right for human right. According to Amnesty International, “the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of expression were restricted. Conditions of detention remained harsh. Children were forced into begging on the street. Impunity for human rights violations was not addressed.” It could be a lot worse, but Japan just outclasses them.

Progressive final score: Japan 3 Senegal 1 (Actual score Japan 2 Senegal 2)

Poland v Colombia

Sunday 24th June 7pm ITV

Colombia have their issues. Drug barons such as Pablo Escobar and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s (Farc), a terrorist group, have been responsible for atrocities over the years. The authorities, meanwhile, have, in the past resorted to a campaign of murder, torture and rape to try and maintain “order”. In ding to they were abetted by Colombia’s business and political elite.

A peace agreement with the Farc in 2016 stopped much of the violence, but Colombia remains the world’s largest producer of cocaine, and with it comes much violence and intimidation. Amnesty International states: “The armed conflict persisted in 2017 and in some parts of the country it seemed to have intensified. Concerns remained about impunity for crimes committed during the armed conflict. Security forces used excessive force, sometimes causing civilian deaths. Violence against women, particularly sexual violence, persisted.”

Newly elected president Duque wants to recast the agreement with Farc.

Despite all the efforts at rebuilding Colombian society, progressive values remain under severe threat.

Against all, that Poland’s drift to authoritarian populism looks fairly tame. The Government has progressively tightened its grip on the courts, the media and NGOs. The EU Commission has taken the highly unusual step of starting proceedings against Poland for failing to protect human rights and the rule of law, and the authorities continue to defy the EU over taking their share of refugees.

A pretty uninspiring match.

Progressive final score: Poland 2 Colombia 1 (Actual score: Poland 0 Colombia 3)

Uruguay v Russia

Monday 25 June 3pm ITV

Hosts Russia are in trouble in almost all their matches, such is their dismal record in foreign policy and domestic civil liberties. The litany of horrors is well known; from the attempted murder of the Skripals in Salisbury to the harassment of LGBT people, the Russians miss the open goal of human rights at every opportunity.

Uruguay is a progressive World Cup success story, all the more so in contrast to Russia’s strategic issues. Topically, Uruguay is the first country in the world to fully legalise recreational cannabis, and has a Mandela-like figure leading this relatively stable, prosperous, and peaceable nation. Former left-wing guerrilla Jose Mujica has been the freely-elected president since 2010 and has said he bears the military dictatorship that ran the country (1973-85), and locked him up, no malice.

Progressive final score: Uruguay 6 Russia 0 (Actual score: Uruguay 3 Russia 0)

Saudi Arabia v Egypt

Monday 25th June 3pm ITV4

The first World Cup match to be relegated to a non-mainstream TV channel, there’s not much excitement to look forward to wherever you look.

Saudi Arabia’s lamentable record in human rights and its merciless prosecution of the war in Yemen detract from whatever slow and modest attempts at liberalisation the Crown prince is attempting in his deeply conservative kingdom.

Egypt is in a scarcely better place. According to Human Rights Watch: “President Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi’s government continues to preside over the worst human rights crisis in the country for decades. Police systematically used torture, arbitrary arrests, and enforced disappearances to silence political dissent. Thousands of civilians were tried by military courts. By introducing new restrictive NGO legislation, detaining journalists, and persecuting human rights defenders and subjecting them to travel bans, the government is working to eradicate independent civil society in the country. The crackdown on LGBT people has grown increasingly vicious, along with the continued repression of labour activists”.

Even so, Egypt’s key advantage in this contest is that it isn’t actively engaged in a war with its neighbours, so wins valuable credit there.

Progressive final score: Saudi Arabia 0 Egypt 1 (Actual score: Saudi Arabia 2 Egypt 1)

Spain v Morocco

Monday 25 June 7pm BBC1

Spain enjoys the clear advantage here. While Spain is compromised by the Catalan question, and an overly rigid approach by the Madrid government to Barcelona’s calculated provocations, it is still one of the safest states in the world.

Against that record, Morocco can raise a spirited defence. So there is some modest press freedom, a law has been passed strengthening women’s rights, the Mudawana, and the King even launched an investigation into human rights abuses under his father’s harsh regime. There’s still the death penalty, but apparently rarely used. Arbitrary detention of foreigners is also uncommon. Morocco’s illegal occupation of Western Sahara remains in place. Yet, as with a previous outing against Portugal, Morocco is the inevitable loser.

Progressive final score: Spain 3 Morocco 1 (Actual score: Spain 2 Morocco 2)

Iran v Portugal

Monday 25th June 7pm BBC4

Short of abolishing the theocratic regime of the ayatollahs, cancelling the nuclear weapons programme and ending the interference in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere, there’s little the Iranians can do when faced with the progressive Portuguese.

Like some of the European sides, Portugal’s record on human rights is blighted by its attitude towards asylum seekers and migration generally. Even so, no question about how the winner is here.

Progressive final score: Iran 0 Portugal 5 (Actual score: Iran 1 Portugal 1)

Denmark v France

Tuesday 26 June

Liberty, equality, Fraternity. Rather like nostalgic English fans looking back at the ever more distant triumph of 1966, there is a slight sense of complacency in the French attitude to historic civil liberties. However, the refugee issue and conditions around the channel ports are the inescapable weak points sin the French defence.

Weak points in the French defence. The Danes have no such problems, and les bleues thus go down to another narrow defeat.

Progressive final score: Denmark 3 France 1. (Actual score: Denmark 0 France 0)

Australia v Peru

Tuesday 26th June 3pm ITV4

Quite a few teams in this tournament have their usual competitive progressive advantage blunted by own goals on refugees and asylum. Nowhere is this more painfully the case than Australia, where a militant attitude towards migrants has seen them deported to Cambodia, Nauru and Papua New Guinea, sometimes in very poor conditions. Peru can attack on the treatment of indigenous peoples and women. They have the advantage.

Progressive final score: Australia 1 Peru 3 (Actual score: Australia 0 Peru 2)

Argentina v Nigeria

Tuesday 26th June 7pm BBC1

Argentina has made giant strides since the bad old days of military rule and the Falklands invasion. Today Amnesty International have this to say about the country: “Women and girls faced obstacles in accessing legal abortions. Indigenous Peoples continued to be criminalized and discriminated against. Migrants’ rights suffered significant setbacks.” Not so bad, compared to others: an unenviable international reputation: Corruption and religious and ethnic tensions are the most serious issues. However Nigeria has scored in the front line against Islamic State affiliates and Boko Haram, so they pull a few goals back there.

Progressive final score: Argentina 3 Nigeria 2 (Actual score: Argentina 2 Nigeria 1)

Iceland v Croatia

Tuesday 26th June 7pm BBC4

Iceland is a typically Nordic model of political and social progressiveness, and Croatia isn’t. Such is the assumption, but the world cup can generate all kinds of surprises. So we have to balance Iceland’s especially impressive record on women’s rights with a stubborn attachment to the barbaric and environmentally offensive whaling industry, despite much international opposition. British observers might also feel that Iceland has taken too aggressive a line on her fishing rights.

Croatia does look the weaker ethical side. As Amnesty International puts it: “Discrimination against ethnic and sexual minorities persisted. Refugees and migrants entering irregularly were returned without access to an effective asylum process. Croatia accepted less than a 10th of the refugees and asylum-seekers it had committed to relocate and resettle under EU schemes. Access to abortion remained restricted.”

Thus did some unforced errors hand a potential Croat advantage back to the Icelanders.

Progressive final score: Iceland 2 Croatia 1 (Actual score: Iceland 1 Croatia 2)

South Korea v Germany

Wednesday 27th June 3pm BBC1

Time was when a South Korea crushed under the heel of a violent military dictatorship was at the other end of the human rights league to the peaceful and stable Federal Republic of Germany. However, economically and politically South Korea has made huge strides in recent years, while Germany has slipped back. However, Chancellor Merkel's world-leading attitude to taking 1 million Syrian immigrants secures a widely expected victory.

Progressive final score: South Korea 2 Germany 3 (Actual score: South Korea 2 Germany 0)

Mexico v Sweden

Wednesday 27th June 3pm BBC4

With the best will in the world, and even in top form, there’s no way Mexico is a credible opponent for liberal Sweden.

Obscene gaps in wealth and grinding poverty blight the lives of many poor Mexicans, often existing in shanty towns in a country with a growing industrial base and ample oil reserves. The drugs cartels, which it may be unfair to expect any government to eradicate, have also destroyed the lives of many. Violence against women and extra-judicial detention are also facet s of the dispiriting human rights scene in Mexico. That said, Mexico actually has people from El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Venezuela seeking asylum there.

Sweden, though, takes possession of almost all the game on human rights with a liberal asylum policy and long traditions of democratic freedoms and a more socially mobile and equal society.

No shock at this result.

Progressive final score: Mexico 1 Sweden 4 (Actual score: Mexico 0 Sweden 3)

Serbia v Brazil

Wednesday 27th June 7pm ITV

The bookies may have brazil as firm favourites for the footie, but human rights suggest an altogether tighter outcome for the two nations. Brazil finds itself let down by “Chronic human rights problems” say Human Rights Watch, with the state of the prisons and media freedom being especially poor areas. Economically the nation’s fast emerging economy has stalled, partly because of corporate and political corruption scandals and political instability.

Serbia could make much of this opportunity, but their inherent weakness inevitably slows down their civil liberties game. There are just too many criticisms for the Serbs to take advantage of Brazilian mistakes.

Serbia’s weaknesses include; impunity continued for crimes under international law; Former Serbian military leaders released after serving sentences handed down by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY); Relatives of the disappeared denied recognition as civilian victims of war.

Plus: NGOs were attacked by government officials; Investigative journalists were subjected to smear campaigns the authorities fail to protect LGBTI individuals and organizations from discrimination, threats and physical attacks; Roma families are denied access to social and economic rights; refugees in camps where conditions are inadequate and overcrowded.

Progressive final score: Serbia 1 Brazil 3 (Actual score: Serbia 0 Brazil 2)

Switzerland v Costa Rica

Wednesday 27 June 7pm ITV4

Despite their reputation for storing Nazi gold, tax avoidance and not giving women the vote until 1971, Switzerland can still be counted as a stable, prosperous democratic state with a free media and independent judiciary (and an unusual taste for referenda).

Costa Rica has to contend with the usual disadvantages of a small developing economy – but overcomes those drawbacks to deliver a convincing and polished performance. Costa Rica may only have ever reached the quarter finals once, but they’ve been right at the top of the civil liberties league for a while. Costa Rica has the best record of respecting freedom of expression in Latin America, say Reporters Without Borders. A fully functioning democracy with marriage equality and trans rights on the horizon, Costa Rica is a progressive superpower.

Progressive final score: Switzerland 3 Costa Rica 4 (Actual score: Switzerland 2 Costa Rica 2)

Senegal v Colombia

Thursday 28th June 3pm BBC1

Senegal won plenty of sympathetic crowd support after Alan Sugar’s ill-judged Tweet about the team. Even so, they are a side lacking in human rights scorers. According to Amnesty International, “the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of expression were restricted. Conditions of detention remained harsh. Children were forced into begging on the street. Impunity for human rights violations was not addressed.”

Then again, Colombia is hardly a by-word for freedom and liberty. Even after the end of the civil war, drugs-related violence still mars Colombian society, bringing with it corruption and other crime.

Senegal are lucky to get a win.

Progressive final score: Senegal 2 Colombia 1 (Actual score: Senegal 0 Colombia 1)

Japan v Poland

Thursday 28th June 3pm BBC2

Poland’s Law and Justice party, which has been in government during its latest spell since 2015 has sifted the country decisively towards a tough brand of authoritarianism, significantly weakening the independent judiciary and free media in the process. Hostility to foreigners is a defining feature of the political scene.

Japan has its share of problems, with persistent corruption in high places, and discrimination against the ethnic Korean minority, but retains a civil liberties edge against the Poles.

Progressive final score: Japan 3 Poland 1 (Actual score: Japan 0 Poland 1)

England v Belgium

Thursday 28th June 7pm ITV

A draw would seem to be a fair result here. England has to answer for tis recent Windrush and Grenfell scandals, as well as the rise of a form of petty nationalism, ironically symbolised too often by England flag.

Belgium too is far from perfect and, like the UK, in danger of breaking up, and has sometimes taken too panicky and harsh an approach to defeating terror.

Progressive final score: England 2 Belgium 2 (Actual score: England 0 Belgium 1)

Panama v Tunisia

Thursday 28th June 7pm ITV4

This match isn’t going to attract many viewers from the clash between England and Belgium, but the human rights version of the clash might be a bit more interesting.

Tunisia score surprisingly well for an emerging nation that has been rocked by political revolution and Islamic State terror. Panama, however, is interesting only for the specular weakness of parts of its civic society, most notably exposed in the leaked Panama papers. Corruption at Fifa was merely them most embarrassing of a farrago of coil liberties failures.

Progressive final score: Tunisia 3 Panama 0 (Actual score: Tunisia 2 Panama 1)

France v Argentina

Saturday 30th June 3pm BBC 1

Strong on the field and surprisingly evenly matched on progressive performance too. Argentina, even with its well-known economic instability and record of dictatorship (including the attempt to annex the Falkland Islands in 1983), is today a relatively free and liberal society, where the major problems facing the national team being women and girls finding it difficult to find an abortion, and discrimination against ethnic minorities and migrants.

Formidable France has long been the bastion of liberty, equality and fraternity, as well as Griezemann, Pogba and Kante, but its record on migrant camps at Calais and elsewhere represents a serious missed opportunity to take a lead.

Once again it’s the South Americans who score ahead of the Europeans' usually superior form.

Progressive final score: France 1 Argentina 3 (Actual score: France 4 Argentina 3)

Uruguay v Portugal

Saturday 30th June 7pm ITV 1

Uruguay is proving as much a power on the football pitch as it is in the human rights park. Having kept a clean sheet and seen off Russia, Saudi Arabia and Egypt at the group stage (and all of them with a lamentable record on progressive values), Uruguay faces a more difficult opponent in Portugal, on a variety of criteria.

Uruguay will appeal to liberals everywhere as the first country in the world to fully legalise recreational cannabis, though Portugal runs it close with a similarly permissive approach. Like an unusually indulgent football team manager, Uruguay’s president, a former leftist guerrilla by the name of Jose Mujica, has said he bears the military dictatorship that ran the country (1973-85), and locked him up, no malice. Some criticism from the UN about racial and gender discrimination are two defensive flaws.

Portugal is one of the most pleasant and prosperous sates in the world, and with a broadly good record. However, there are some surprising blemishes, summed up as follows by commentators Amnesty International: “Housing conditions for Roma and people of African descent remained inadequate. Portugal relocated fewer asylum-seekers than it was required to under the EU Relocation Programme. The government proposed legislation to strengthen the protection of transgender and intersex people’s rights. Parliament extended protection against hate speech and discrimination.”

On balance, Uruguay just has the better of the run of play, and proceed to the next stage.

Progressive final score: Uruguay 4 Portugal 3 (Actual score: Uruguay 2 Portugal 1)

Spain v Russia

Sunday 1st July 3pm BBC 1

An all too easy win for Spain, which has its issues with separatism in Catalonia and relatively minor human rights transgressions. Contrast that, though, with Russia, which has invaded its neighbours, attempted to murder people on the streets of Salisbury, bombed Syria and systematically dismantled human rights at home, not least for LGBT people. Human Rights Watch recently commented: “The Fifa World Cup will take place during the worst human rights crisis in Russia since the Soviet era, Human Rights Watch said today. Fifa should use its leverage with the Russian authorities to address labour rights abuses, restrictions on fundamental freedoms, and an on-going crackdown on human rights defenders”. Resurgent nationalism and a weakened media complete the Spanish rollover victory.

Progressive final score: Spain 5 Russia 0 (Actual score: Spain 1 Russia 1p)

Croatia v Denmark

Sunday 1st July 7pm BBC 1

Two smaller nations, but footballing superpowers, with teams that have proved unexpectedly resilient – neither has lost a match so far. Denmark is the winner on human rights though, with many international bodies not even bothering to criticise it. Croatia is much weaker defensively. According to Human rights watch: “Discrimination against ethnic and sexual minorities persisted. Refugees and migrants entering irregularly were returned without access to an effective asylum process. Croatia accepted less than a 10th of the refugees and asylum-seekers it had committed to relocate and resettle under EU schemes. Access to abortion remained restricted.”

The outcome cannot be in doubt.

Progressive final score: Croatia 1 Denmark 4 (Actual score: Croatia 1p Denmark 1)

Brazil v Mexico

Monday 2nd July 3pm ITV I

OK Brazil have won the football world cup four times (1958, 1962, 1970, 1994 and 2002) and are favourites to make it a sixth. However on civil liberties there’s a less glorious record on display. Brazil finds itself let down by “Chronic human rights problems” say Human Rights Watch, with the state of the prisons and media freedom being especially poor areas. Economically the nation’s fast emerging economy has stalled, partly because of corporate and political corruption scandals and political instability.

Even so there’s no room for complacency on the Mexican side. Obscene gaps in wealth and grinding poverty blight the lives of many poor Mexicans, often existing in shanty towns in a country with a growing industrial base and ample oil reserves. The drugs cartels, which it may be unfair to expect any government to eradicate, have also destroyed the lives of many. Violence against women and extra-judicial detention are also facets of the dispiriting human rights scene in Mexico.

Brazil proving difficult to beat, as ever.

Progressive final score: Brazil 2 Mexico 1 (Actual score: Brazil 2 Mexico 0)

Belgium v Japan

Monday 2nd July ITV 1

Two sides that perhaps haven’t always played to their full potential, but showing some more promise at this tournament. In truth, not so much to choose between them, and it’s going to extra time. In the end though, Japan’s miraculously low crime rate scores the vital goal, with Belgium suffering defensive weaknesses in the form of an anti-terror policy that has veered from complacency to panic.

Progressive final score: Belgium 1 Japan 2 (Actual score: Belgium 3 Japan 2)

Uruguay v France

Friday 6th July 3pm

No doubt France are a quality side on the pitch, and could go all the way, though their campaign thus far has sometimes lacked a little panache. They are really quite let down on the human rights and civil liberties side of things too, especially in their treatment of migrants, who for so long were left to rot in those stinking camps around the Channel ports. The recent hypocrisy of President Macron – agreeing to share the task of dealing with migrants but refusing to have any resettlement centres on French soil highlighted the general weakness in this filed. Not much to cheer about there. Still, you can exaggerate its faults and France is an obviously free and tolerant society.

Uruguay, however, have the more dazzling record in the progressive game, and the French can’t match their progressive pace of reform. Uruguay is, for example, the first country in the world to fully legalise recreational cannabis, for a start, and has a Mandela-like figure leading this relatively stable, prosperous, and peaceable nation. Former left-wing guerrilla Jose Mujica has been the freely-elected president since 2010 and has said he bears the military dictatorship that ran the country (1973-85), and locked him up, no malice.

No question of this going to penalties.

Progressive final score: Uruguay 4 France 2 (Actual score: Uruguay 0 France 2)

Brazil v Belgium

Friday 6th July 7pm

In football, everyone's heard of Pele. In international politics, everyone's head of Lula, the former Brazilian president, fantastically popular in his time but eventually overwhelmed by allegations of corruption. It is only one of the weaknesses in Brazil’s progressive world cup run, in sharp contrast to its in-form players on the pitch. Brazil suffers “chronic human rights problems” say Human Rights Watch, with the state of the prisons and media freedom being especially poor areas.

Belgium, probably less of a match on the field, are far head of the Brazilians on civil liberties and democratic values in their highly devolved kingdom. Still, Amnesty International has this to say about them in its country report: “Prison conditions remained poor; hundreds of offenders with mental health problems or mental disabilities continued to be detained in inadequate prison wards. Several laws on professional secrecy introduced requirements for social workers to share private information regarding potential suspects of terrorism-related offences. Parliament introduced a number of restrictions to asylum and migration laws. A new law on legal gender recognition improved the rights of transgender people.”

On balance then, a convincing win for Belgium.

Progressive final score: Brazil 1 Belgium 3 (Actual score: Brazil 1 Belgium 2)

Russia v Croatia

Saturday 11 July 3pm

Annoyingly for those who care about human rights, Russia’s World Cup is turning into a propaganda coup for Vladimir Putin, thanks largely to the warm-hearted Russian people.

The Russian government is a different matter, and their reputation is the opposite, built on international aggression and the dismantling of human rights at home.

Nothing the Croatians can do is as grievous as Russia’s performance home and away. Amnesty International sum them up as follows: “Discrimination against ethnic and sexual minorities persisted. Refugees and migrants entering irregularly were returned without access to an effective asylum process. Croatia accepted less than a 10th of the refugees and asylum-seekers it had committed to relocate and resettle under EU schemes. Access to abortion remained restricted.”

In this contest at least Croatia enjoys a runaway advantage.

Progressive final score: Russia 0 Croatia 4 (Actual score: Russia 2 Croatia 2p)

Sweden v England

Saturday 7th July

While both teams might be a little surprised, and very pleased, to have made it this far in the football, they wouldn’t be surprised to see themselves progressing even further in the progressive person’s world cup.

On and off the pitch it’s a tight game, with neither side conceding much, and both having some excellent scoring opportunities, thanks to their open democracies and broadly tolerant societies. England has to deal with the problems underlying the rendition, Windrush and Grenfell scandals, while Amnesty International comments on Sweden thus: “The authorities failed to adopt effective strategies to prevent racist and xenophobic attacks. Rape and other forms of sexual violence against women and girls remained widespread but there were few convictions. Roma people continued to face discrimination.”

On England (technically the UK) Amnesty says this: “Women in Northern Ireland continued to face significant restrictions on access to abortion. Counter-terrorism laws continued to restrict rights. Full accountability for torture allegations against UK intelligence agencies and armed forces remained unrealized.

Sweden does, however, have the recent achievement of taking in migrants from Syria and elsewhere trying to make a better life for themselves.

Progressive final score: Sweden 3 England 2 (Actual score: Sweden 0 England 2)

England v Croatia

Wednesday 11 July 7pm

England deserve to have come this far in the World Cup, can the same be said about their progress in the progressive person’s world cup of human rights?

Well, there’s surprisingly little between the two teams. Croatia has come a long way since the civil war in Yugoslavia a quarter century ago. Amnesty International sum them up as follows: “Discrimination against ethnic and sexual minorities persisted. Refugees and migrants entering irregularly were returned without access to an effective asylum process. Croatia accepted less than a 10th of the refugees and asylum-seekers it had committed to relocate and resettle under EU schemes. Access to abortion remained restricted.”

That is not radically inferior to the British record, which has recently suffered from some high-profile defensive weaknesses, such as the Windrush scandal, though you could argue that the UK’s democratic freedoms are longer-established and more durable than in Croatia.

A hard-fought contest then, and going to metaphorical extra time, with England just enjoying a margin of victory.

Progressive final score: England 2 Croatia 1 (Actual score: England 1 Croatia 2 aet)

England v Belgium

Saturday 14th July
Third Place play-off

A poignant game, this, and, for some, the final that might or should have been. Never mind. Both teams have shown the scale of their talent and professionalism, and to get as far as this is a remarkable feat.

The human rights records of both countries are well known, and well balanced. On balance, the Belgians have fewer defensive weaknesses, thanks to recent British shameful scandals such as the Windrush and Grenfell stories. Both England and Belgium, on and off the pitch, could be said to deserve to win, but they can’t at this stage in the tournament, and it’s another disappointment for the three lions.

Progressive final score: Belgium 3 England 2

France v Croatia

Sunday 15th July
Final

It would be a surprise indeed of Croatia managed to defeat France. The bookies, admittedly, don’t always get it right, but it would take some luck for Croatia to overhaul France's dazzlingly skilful players – though no-one should underestimate Croatia's own levels of talent, doggedness, and their stamina, as England discovered.

Croatia has a surprisingly good human rights reputation nowadays, a quarter century after a bloody and tragic civil war in Yugoslavia that claimed so many and where so many war crimes were committed. France, on the other hand, hasn’t always lived up to its best traditions in recent times.

The existence of the so-called Jungle at Calais, and continuing neglect of the welfare of refugees are serious weaknesses. The recent hypocrisy of President Macron – agreeing to share the task of dealing with migrants but refusing to have any resettlement centres on French soil highlights how much this is true.

So, in the progressive person's guide to the World Cup a shock winner in prospect.

Progressive final score: France 1 Croatia 2

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